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Long-term pension fund infrastructure investments can still deliver social value despite inflation

  • Investments
  • Social value
By Max Cawthorn, Head of PIC Capital Strategy
  • institutional investors’ focus on social considerations has broadened in recent years, with growing scrutiny on the creation of social value, partly as a result of the pandemic and cost of living crisis
  • greater global demand for raw materials could result in higher construction cost inflation
  • construction company insolvencies highest since 2008

Investing in local regeneration projects presents an ideal opportunity to support the government’s growth agenda and create positive social outcomes, for example through job creation, and support into the local economy. One such investment is PIC’s £130 million investment in Miller’s Quay, the cornerstone scheme at Wirral Waters, one of the UK’s largest brownfield regeneration projects. In June, we held its topping out ceremony, the phase of the development marking the highest point of construction. Once completed in 2025, 500 sustainable waterfront apartments will replace the derelict brownfield site that Peel L&P is developing over the next decade, with 100 affordable homes and new transportation infrastructure on the wider Wirral Waters site.

headshot - Max Cawthorn, Head of PIC Capital Strategy
Max Cawthorn, Head of PIC Capital Strategy

Such investments, which have a lasting impact on current and future generations, are socially beneficial but, as the table below shows, in the short term there are current headwinds to driving social value further and faster. For example, labour costs rose 6% on average in 2022, a trend which is still gathering pace. At the same time construction orders fell in Q1 by 12.4% which was below the five year quarterly average. It’s no surprise that over 4,000 construction company insolvencies have been recorded in the last 12 months – which is the highest since the 2008 financial crisis.


Construction inflation update


Labour Wages

  • construction pay increased 6% in 2022 
  • low number of vacancies due to falling number of new jobs 
  • government have agreed to interim measures to ease visa applications for specialist trades

Market Outlook

  • new construction orders fell 12.4% in Q1 2023 – below the 5 year quarterly average 
  • over 4,000 construction insolvencies in 2022 (highest since financial crisis) 
  • contractors less open to single stage tendering due to unstable market

Material

  • re-opening of Chinese real estate market will add to demand for industrial metals (copper & aluminium) and commodities
  • energy prices lower than anticipated but still higher than 1 year ago
  • material inflation likely to impact MEP packages more than others

 

Source: Gardiner & Theobald; Mace
apartments under construction Miller’s Quay

The re-opening of the Chinese economy, post-Covid restrictions will add heightened demand for industrial metals, such as copper and aluminium, further squeezing costs for UK construction. Warehousing and transportation networks are also seeing sharp rises in operating costs in 2023 with little immediate relief on the horizon, as inflation remains stubbornly high, there is a need for material and labour costs to be sourced as locally as possible to become as time and energy efficient as possible. 

Combine that with consumers becoming more concerned about the energy efficiency of their homes, as well as a strong legislative focus on emission reduction within Europe, and there is growing motivation for social value and sustainability to be increasingly important priority looking forward.


What happens next? 

  • house building is going to be a battleground at the next general election
  • insurers like PIC can play a leading role in delivering the funds needed to build the UK’s social infrastructure
  • different asset classes of housing have different funding requirements with equal amounts of urgency required to satisfy the demands of an aging population, social housing tenants and young professionals seeking reasonably priced accommodation.

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